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Starting from more than 1.1 billions of people live in China in 1990, and only half from that were the total humans in India. Both countries’ numbers of population has increased up to 2 million in the next decade. Hereafter, India has a significant grow in 2010, by the total 1.2 billions of people, it was known only 0.1 less than China. Even better, in 2020, India and China total population was only differentiated less than the previous one. India asserts its position among global AI leaders, rejecting a US-China-centric hierarchy. Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw highlighted India’s independent strategy, talent, and progress across the AI stack, emphasizing return on investment over frontier model size.
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India’s transition differs from China’s in pace and scale, but not in direction. Solar and wind prices in India are among the lowest in the world. Electrification of transport is advancing fastest in two and three wheelers, but buses and trucks are following as battery costs fall. India is a hair under 100% heavy freight rail electrification, the only country higher than China.
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Age-adjusted rates, shown in blue, also account for the fact that countries have older populations today; we can see that the fully age-adjusted rate has actually fallen by more than 20%. A more accurate mental model starts with abandoning the idea that demand growth implies fossil growth. It recognizes that electrification eats volume, not just emissions, and that storage accelerates change before capacity peaks are reached. It treats freight electrification as a leading indicator rather than a lagging one.
India’s evolving economic strategy increasingly hinges on deepening ties with alternative partners across the Indo-Pacific. This pivot is also visible in recalibrating subregional engagement through BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). As SAARC remains paralysed by India–Pakistan tensions, BIMSTEC has emerged as the primary forum for regional cooperation, offering a platform that bypasses Islamabad and aligns with India’s Act East policy.
Road transport oil demand per capita is significantly lower, thanks first to smaller, lighter vehicles and now to the rise of electric vehicles (EVs). Meanwhile, coal power growth is fading at levels a quarter of where China’s did. Indian coal-fired generation in 2025 is set to fall year-on-year, though solar’s rise continues uninterrupted. Ember and TERI’s least-cost pathway projects plateauing coal demand through to 2030. Similarly, IEA’s Stated Policies scenario (which has historically underestimated electrotech growth) sees India’s coal demand in 2035 at roughly today’s level.